Record voter turnout reshapes Bihar’s political landscape

The political battle is primarily between the NDA, led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) and the BJP, and the Mahagathbandhan, spearheaded by Tejashwi Yadav’s RJD and the Congress. With 243 assembly seats at stake and 122 needed for a majority, both alliances are fighting for control of Bihar’s future.



Historic Voter Turnout

• The 2025 Bihar Assembly elections, held in two phases (6 November and 11 November), have become one of the most remarkable in the state’s electoral history in terms of participation.
• In Phase 1, turnout reached a record ~64.7%.
• In Phase 2, turnout climbed further to about 68.7%.
• Overall, the provisional turnout across both phases stood at ~66.9%.
• This surge in voter engagement underscores a strong public interest in the electoral process, signalling that political mobilisation in Bihar has reached a new high.

The Combatants and the Stakes

• The election is effectively a showdown between two major alliances:
• The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
• The Mahagathbandhan, featuring the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Indian National Congress and others, led by Tejashwi Yadav.
• The stakes are high: with 243 seats in the state assembly, a party/alliance needs 122 for a majority.
• It’s not only about who will govern Bihar for the next five years, but also about the emotional and political narrative: continuity and development under the NDA versus change and new leadership under the Mahagathbandhan.

Exit Polls & Forecasts

• Although actual results are due on 14 November, early exit‐poll data and projections are already generating intense interest:
• Many exit polls are projecting a comfortable win for the NDA, with estimates in the range of 130-160+ seats.
• The Mahagathbandhan is forecast to trail significantly, with much lower seat counts.
• Smaller/newer parties appear to make minimal impact per current projections.
• These projections, while not definitive, already suggest a tilt in voter sentiment and set the scene for what may be a decisive outcome.

Dynamics & Themes to Watch

• Several key dynamics are shaping this election:
• Strong voter mobilisation — especially among women, youth and historically under-represented groups. Phase 2 saw active participation across constituencies.
• Regional turnout patterns — Some districts recorded particularly high turnouts (such as in the Seemanchal region).
• Alliance arithmetic & leadership — The role of Nitish Kumar and Tejashwi Yadav, and how their leadership is viewed by the electorate, is central to this election.
• New parties and re-alignments — With newer entrants, realignments and shifting loyalties, the political map of Bihar could see subtle but meaningful change.
• Governance vs transformation debate — The election also frames the debate: Should voters stick with the present for continuity or vote for change? The high turnout suggests strong public engagement with this question.

What Lies Ahead

• The counting day on 14 November will bring the actual verdict. While exit polls provide strong hints, as always in democracy the final outcome may contain surprises. Key questions remain:
• Will the NDA convert its projected advantage into a decisive majority?
• Can the Mahagathbandhan defy projections and stage a comeback?
• Will smaller parties or new alignments affect the seat arithmetic in unexpected ways?
• What degree of mandate will the winning alliance receive, and how will that shape governance, policy priorities and coalitions?





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